Abstract

Dr Andrew Gill, Military Systems Experimentation Branch, DSTO Salisbury
Mr Dion Grieger, Land Operations Division, DSTO Salisbury

All other things being equal, possessing a competitive edge over one's adversary in a given component of land warfare is usually thought to translate into improved combat effectiveness. A common assumption is that information is the critical component in which to achieve this. Little is known quantitatively about the robustness of the above two statements to variations in the level of battlefield uncertainty (the so-called fog of war).

Recently, other researchers performed experiments using a modified version of chess to test these hypotheses. This paper outlines our attempt to repeat the chessboard experiments using another analogue of warfare based on a computer cellular automata model known as ISAAC. The benefits of doing this include the reduction in uncertainty and output variations by using less subjective players; the ability to obtain more accurate statistics from increased sampling; the capacity to consider more parameter excursions and scenarios, leading to further hypothesis testing; and importantly to test whether the chessboard conclusions are either model or scenario dependent.

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